Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.94 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY87.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+33.94 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 23.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Jul 31, 02:44 AMJul 31, 02:44 AMJul 31, 02:44 AMJul 31, 02:44 AMJul 31, 02:44 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T02:44:25.941Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:44:30.521Z0.0%23.5%+23.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 87.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 35.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.9%. Marx fair UP is 86.1%.