VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.81 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 60.5%Marx Fair UP 60.5%
Jul 30, 05:55 PMJul 30, 05:57 PMJul 30, 05:59 PMJul 30, 06:01 PMJul 30, 06:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T17:55:23.099Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:23.230Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:38.184Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:54.207Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:57:23.700Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:22.795Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:40.040Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:58.347Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:59:24.381Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:00:22.955Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:00:42.415Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:01:00.985Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:01:23.176Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:02:22.827Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:02:53.642Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 41.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 59.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.