VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.81 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY52.5%41.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+56.81 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN134.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 73.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 05:56 PMJul 30, 05:57 PMJul 30, 05:58 PMJul 30, 05:58 PMJul 30, 05:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T17:56:54.207Z	52.5%	100.0%	+47.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:58:40.040Z	52.5%	52.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:58:58.347Z	52.5%	100.0%	+47.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:59:24.381Z	73.5%	100.0%	+26.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
The executable UP entry was 41.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 59.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.