VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.11 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 04:47 PMJul 30, 04:49 PMJul 30, 04:50 PMJul 30, 04:51 PMJul 30, 04:53 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T16:47:34.813Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:47:51.179Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:22.710Z | 76.5% | 75.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:24.772Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:35.232Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:49:03.805Z | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:49:29.071Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:49:43.114Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:51:27.849Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:52:29.034Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:53:23.603Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 76.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 94.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 94.0%, gross edge 6.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.