VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +59.85 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 30, 03:55 PMJul 30, 03:57 PMJul 30, 03:59 PMJul 30, 04:01 PMJul 30, 04:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T15:55:48.819Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:56:57.188Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:57:25.645Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:57:57.364Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:58:35.491Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:59:00.118Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:00:00.449Z | 29.5% | 50.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:00:19.984Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:00:33.111Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:01:01.265Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:01:17.646Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:02:06.569Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:02:57.612Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:04:02.102Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 38.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 38.0%, gross edge 62.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.