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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 03:40 AMJul 30, 03:42 AMJul 30, 03:44 AMJul 30, 03:46 AMJul 30, 03:48 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T03:40:53.258Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:41:21.369Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:41:42.522Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:42:42.546Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:42:51.629Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:43:21.564Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:43:43.157Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:44:44.048Z57.5%61.3%+3.8 pp
2026-07-30T03:44:57.755Z57.5%61.3%+3.8 pp
2026-07-30T03:45:23.231Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:45:44.202Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:46:06.467Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:46:45.682Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:47:03.111Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:47:42.794Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:48:51.002Z100.0%100.0%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict