VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.32 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.4% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.32 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN88.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 03:15 AMJul 30, 03:17 AMJul 30, 03:20 AMJul 30, 03:22 AMJul 30, 03:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T03:15:40.129Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:16:38.648Z	50.5%	86.5%	+36.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:17:00.880Z	86.5%	86.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:17:12.456Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:18:26.643Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:20:22.385Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T03:22:02.544Z	100.0%	50.5%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-30T03:24:43.078Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.4%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.