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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 8.5%Marx Fair UP 8.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 12:40 AMJul 30, 12:42 AMJul 30, 12:44 AMJul 30, 12:46 AMJul 30, 12:48 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T00:40:20.259Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:41:14.055Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:41:59.349Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:42:42.881Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:42:57.545Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:43:17.894Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:43:45.908Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:44:43.421Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:44:52.033Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:45:37.198Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:45:43.113Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:46:42.751Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:47:43.554Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:48:13.431Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict