VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +54.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 10:36 PMJul 29, 10:37 PMJul 29, 10:39 PMJul 29, 10:41 PMJul 29, 10:43 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T22:36:02.649Z | 37.5% | 86.7% | +49.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:36:18.526Z | 50.5% | 86.7% | +36.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:36:50.844Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:37:07.612Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:37:48.307Z | 37.5% | 95.1% | +57.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:38:23.764Z | 37.5% | 95.1% | +57.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:38:46.636Z | 37.5% | 95.1% | +57.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:39:42.341Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:39:59.532Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:40:19.404Z | 37.5% | 99.7% | +62.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:40:43.692Z | 99.5% | 99.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:41:38.737Z | 99.5% | 99.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:41:42.240Z | 99.5% | 99.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:42:20.566Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:42:42.904Z | 42.5% | 99.5% | +57.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:43:43.590Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 86.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 30.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 54.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 42.0%, gross edge 53.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.9%. Marx fair UP is 95.1%.