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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.74 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.74 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 05:40 PMJul 29, 05:43 PMJul 29, 05:45 PMJul 29, 05:47 PMJul 29, 05:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T17:40:56.468Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:41:22.832Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:41:37.201Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:41:43.954Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:42:44.399Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:42:55.581Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:43:14.312Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:43:46.528Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:44:42.031Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:44:50.556Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:45:17.905Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:45:43.851Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:45:56.174Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:46:43.220Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:46:56.742Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:47:43.015Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:48:50.939Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:49:42.468Z100.0%100.0%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.74 pp Edge | AntiPredict