VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.74 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.74 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 29, 05:41 PMJul 29, 05:43 PMJul 29, 05:45 PMJul 29, 05:47 PMJul 29, 05:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T17:41:22.832Z	74.5%	100.0%	+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:46:56.742Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:49:42.468Z	100.0%	100.0%	-0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.