VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +93.90 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 01:36 PMJul 29, 01:38 PMJul 29, 01:40 PMJul 29, 01:42 PMJul 29, 01:44 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T13:36:26.788Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:36:42.253Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:36:51.947Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:37:41.765Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:38:12.899Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:38:43.145Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:39:43.816Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:39:54.783Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:40:20.197Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:40:43.278Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:41:13.896Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:41:44.527Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:41:54.093Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:42:42.633Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:43:41.695Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:44:43.576Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 42.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 5.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 93.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 5.3%, gross edge 95.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 0.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 93.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.