VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 07:40 AMJul 29, 07:42 AMJul 29, 07:44 AMJul 29, 07:46 AMJul 29, 07:48 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T07:40:05.661Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:41:43.042Z | 57.5% | 49.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:41:45.663Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:41:55.722Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:42:08.197Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:42:50.139Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:43:49.172Z | 57.5% | 62.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:43:52.305Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:44:42.983Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:44:46.144Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:44:54.666Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:45:44.135Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:45:52.728Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:46:40.592Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:47:49.344Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:48:40.640Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 47.8%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 1.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.