VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 71.5%Marx Fair UP 71.5%
Jul 29, 07:10 AMJul 29, 07:12 AMJul 29, 07:14 AMJul 29, 07:17 AMJul 29, 07:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T07:10:04.441Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:10:53.900Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:11:46.693Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:12:08.143Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:13:42.549Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:13:50.811Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:14:40.757Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:14:40.786Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:15:42.967Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:15:47.922Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:16:39.653Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:17:43.784Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:18:39.742Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:19:39.277Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.