VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.16 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 97.5%Marx Fair UP 97.5%
Jul 29, 06:40 AMJul 29, 06:41 AMJul 29, 06:43 AMJul 29, 06:44 AMJul 29, 06:45 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T06:40:12.648Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:45:50.060Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.6%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.2%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.