VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 05:45 AMJul 29, 05:47 AMJul 29, 05:49 AMJul 29, 05:51 AMJul 29, 05:53 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:45:44.981Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:45:54.159Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:46:08.326Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:46:41.210Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:47:43.618Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:47:45.482Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:48:08.995Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:48:09.683Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:48:41.252Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:49:39.004Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:49:44.760Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:05.307Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:42.299Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:54.422Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:51:39.908Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:51:49.165Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:52:42.196Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:53:38.893Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 54.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.