VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.01 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+41.01 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 29, 05:30 AMJul 29, 05:32 AMJul 29, 05:34 AMJul 29, 05:36 AMJul 29, 05:38 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T05:30:06.370Z	61.5%	100.0%	+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:32:07.243Z	61.5%	100.0%	+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:38:06.789Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 94.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 44.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.9%. Marx fair UP is 95.1%.