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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.01 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+41.01 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 05:30 AMJul 29, 05:32 AMJul 29, 05:34 AMJul 29, 05:36 AMJul 29, 05:38 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T05:30:06.370Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:30:06.965Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:30:43.760Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:31:39.484Z96.5%61.5%-35.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:31:43.881Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:32:07.243Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:33:49.043Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:34:07.630Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:34:28.521Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:34:39.057Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:35:40.594Z99.5%96.5%-3.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:35:45.571Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:35:55.105Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T05:36:12.054Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:36:12.840Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:36:42.845Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T05:38:06.789Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 94.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 44.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.9%. Marx fair UP is 95.1%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.01 pp Edge | AntiPredict