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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 18.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 09:45 PMJul 28, 09:48 PMJul 28, 09:50 PMJul 28, 09:52 PMJul 28, 09:54 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T21:45:49.776Z36.5%18.5%-18.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:46:39.925Z36.5%18.5%-18.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:47:46.556Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:49:42.104Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:50:38.670Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:51:38.948Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:52:41.926Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:52:45.937Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:53:42.687Z18.5%18.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:54:42.415Z0.0%18.5%+18.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 47.0%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict