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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%31.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+67.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN207.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:11 PMJul 28, 04:13 PMJul 28, 04:15 PMJul 28, 04:17 PMJul 28, 04:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:11:13.039Z19.5%50.5%+31.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:23.340Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:45.232Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:13:24.647Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:13:48.048Z19.5%0.0%-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:14:30.763Z20.5%0.0%-20.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:15:15.603Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:15:29.775Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:16:15.643Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:16:22.811Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:17:15.050Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:18:17.386Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:18:19.574Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:19:15.337Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 31.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 31.0%, gross edge 69.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.00 pp Edge | AntiPredict