VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.77 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 02:55 PMJul 28, 02:57 PMJul 28, 02:59 PMJul 28, 03:02 PMJul 28, 03:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T14:55:02.761Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:23.334Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:56:30.885Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:56:35.534Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:05.003Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:05.477Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:32.418Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:58:30.827Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:58:39.429Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:01.465Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:31.040Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:40.504Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:01:02.194Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:01:30.900Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:02:31.197Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:02:35.548Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:03:32.154Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:04:30.865Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 45.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 45.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.