VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.77 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%45.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+52.77 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN114.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 02:55 PMJul 28, 02:56 PMJul 28, 02:58 PMJul 28, 03:00 PMJul 28, 03:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T14:55:02.761Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:57:05.477Z	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:58:39.429Z	57.5%	57.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:59:01.465Z	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:02:35.548Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 45.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 45.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.