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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.33 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%40.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+57.33 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN137.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:10 PMJul 28, 02:12 PMJul 28, 02:15 PMJul 28, 02:17 PMJul 28, 02:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T14:10:37.086Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:10:57.557Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:11:31.067Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:12:25.492Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:12:31.242Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:13:08.987Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:13:30.973Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:14:31.737Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:14:41.178Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:15:02.483Z28.5%0.0%-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:15:30.977Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:15:35.726Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:16:30.847Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:16:35.317Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:17:36.055Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:18:31.052Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:19:30.970Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 40.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.5%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.33 pp Edge | AntiPredict