VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 7.5%Marx Fair UP 7.5%
Jul 28, 01:01 PMJul 28, 01:03 PMJul 28, 01:05 PMJul 28, 01:07 PMJul 28, 01:09 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T13:01:32.605Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:40.236Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:56.664Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:57.152Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:02:32.327Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:30.934Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:39.796Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:56.660Z | 15.5% | 0.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:57.114Z | 15.5% | 0.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:04:30.927Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:31.113Z | 0.5% | 17.5% | +17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:35.231Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:40.303Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:57.828Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:06:30.984Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:07:34.288Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:08:00.734Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:09:17.422Z | 0.0% | 7.5% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:09:32.275Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.