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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 69.5%Marx Fair UP 29.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:05 AMJul 28, 08:07 AMJul 28, 08:09 AMJul 28, 08:12 AMJul 28, 08:14 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T08:05:22.478Z29.5%50.5%+21.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:05:49.254Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:05:54.608Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:07:39.287Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:07:50.222Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:09:30.849Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:09:33.766Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:10:16.679Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:10:30.787Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:11:30.820Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:12:30.838Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:13:30.894Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:13:33.608Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:14:31.901Z69.5%29.5%-40.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict