VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 10.5%Marx Fair UP 10.5%

Jul 28, 05:10 AMJul 28, 05:12 AMJul 28, 05:15 AMJul 28, 05:17 AMJul 28, 05:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T05:10:34.268Z	45.5%	50.5%	+5.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:10:38.608Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:10:43.676Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:11:30.792Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:12:30.826Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:13:31.999Z	19.5%	0.0%	-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:14:30.924Z	10.5%	0.0%	-10.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:14:39.579Z	10.5%	0.0%	-10.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:15:30.831Z	19.5%	0.0%	-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:15:34.950Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:15:39.341Z	19.5%	0.0%	-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:16:30.856Z	19.5%	19.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:16:34.785Z	19.5%	19.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:16:41.083Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:16:41.312Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:16:47.677Z	19.5%	19.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:17:30.849Z	19.5%	0.5%	-19.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:17:35.011Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:17:39.277Z	19.5%	19.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:18:30.878Z	10.5%	0.5%	-10.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:18:39.934Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:18:52.908Z	10.5%	10.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:19:30.829Z	10.5%	10.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.6%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.