VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 03:08 AMJul 28, 03:10 AMJul 28, 03:11 AMJul 28, 03:13 AMJul 28, 03:14 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T03:08:42.671Z	82.5%	82.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:09:31.128Z	82.5%	82.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:09:39.721Z	82.5%	82.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:09:58.677Z	82.5%	0.0%	-82.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:09:59.815Z	82.5%	0.0%	-82.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:10:32.298Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:10:39.974Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:11:31.243Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:12:32.174Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:12:34.882Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:13:31.219Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:14:32.373Z	0.0%	0.5%	+0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.