VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +77.34 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Jul 27, 08:06 PMJul 27, 08:08 PMJul 27, 08:10 PMJul 27, 08:12 PMJul 27, 08:14 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T20:06:39.474Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:06:59.065Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:08:30.863Z | 2.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:08:35.068Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:08:44.235Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:08:59.608Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:09:30.789Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:10:30.744Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:10:39.869Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:11:00.417Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:11:30.941Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:12:30.754Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:12:58.707Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:13:30.762Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:14:30.726Z | 0.0% | 2.5% | +2.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 21.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 77.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 21.0%, gross edge 79.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 77.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.