VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.65 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 27, 07:55 PMJul 27, 07:57 PMJul 27, 07:59 PMJul 27, 08:02 PMJul 27, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T19:55:10.062Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:55:41.921Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:56:43.977Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:56:59.319Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:58:30.728Z | 72.5% | 50.5% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:58:39.370Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:58:45.015Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:58:56.318Z | 72.5% | 100.0% | +27.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:59:30.945Z | 72.5% | 100.0% | +27.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:00:30.785Z | 99.5% | 72.5% | -27.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:00:34.783Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:00:39.441Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:01:01.022Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:01:30.730Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:02:30.956Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:02:55.668Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:03:30.767Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:04:30.882Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.