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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.57 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%54.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY10.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+33.57 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-21.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 96.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 06:40 AMJul 28, 06:42 AMJul 28, 06:45 AMJul 28, 06:47 AMJul 28, 06:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T06:40:33.031Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:40:40.875Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:41:30.822Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:41:50.685Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:42:33.432Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:43:30.814Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:43:39.021Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:43:49.232Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:43:49.569Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:44:30.804Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:45:30.879Z99.5%47.5%-52.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:45:34.453Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:45:39.759Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:45:48.600Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:46:31.000Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:47:30.864Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:47:34.492Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:48:30.950Z96.5%99.5%+3.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:49:44.938Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 10.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 54.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.2%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 3.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 33.6%. Marx fair UP is 10.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.57 pp Edge | AntiPredict