VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.63 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY35.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+12.63 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 15.5%

Jul 28, 01:45 PMJul 28, 01:47 PMJul 28, 01:49 PMJul 28, 01:52 PMJul 28, 01:54 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T13:45:05.600Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:46:58.973Z	35.5%	0.0%	-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:52:55.261Z	15.5%	15.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:54:32.828Z	0.0%	15.5%	+15.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 35.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 14.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.6%. Marx fair UP is 35.1%.