VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.26 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+6.26 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 01:36 PMJul 28, 01:37 PMJul 28, 01:39 PMJul 28, 01:41 PMJul 28, 01:43 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T13:36:03.027Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:37:59.348Z	37.5%	0.0%	-37.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:43:01.834Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 41.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 8.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.3%. Marx fair UP is 41.5%.