VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +69.06 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY58.5%29.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+69.06 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 27, 01:10 PMJul 27, 01:13 PMJul 27, 01:15 PMJul 27, 01:17 PMJul 27, 01:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-27T13:10:42.887Z	58.5%	100.0%	+41.5 pp
2026-07-27T13:13:54.884Z	58.5%	100.0%	+41.5 pp
2026-07-27T13:19:53.725Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 58.5%.
The executable UP entry was 29.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 69.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 27.0%, gross edge 73.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 71.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.