VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +69.06 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 27, 01:10 PMJul 27, 01:12 PMJul 27, 01:15 PMJul 27, 01:17 PMJul 27, 01:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T13:10:22.160Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:10:42.887Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:11:13.329Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:12:12.040Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:12:19.761Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:13:12.168Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:13:54.884Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:14:13.241Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:14:16.769Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:15:12.109Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:15:25.930Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:16:12.051Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:17:00.824Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:17:12.139Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:19:53.725Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 58.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 29.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 69.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 27.0%, gross edge 73.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 71.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.