VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.64 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 04:01 PMAug 06, 05:01 PMAug 06, 06:01 PMAug 06, 07:00 PMAug 06, 08:00 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T16:05:44.111Z | 49.0% | 26.6% | -22.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:09:46.323Z | 53.0% | 33.5% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:14:41.758Z | 55.0% | 31.3% | -23.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:16:41.601Z | 50.0% | 27.7% | -22.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:24:41.415Z | 50.5% | 25.9% | -24.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:46:17.756Z | 60.0% | 34.1% | -25.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:50:45.047Z | 55.0% | 30.7% | -24.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:59:09.681Z | 61.5% | 34.7% | -26.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:59:48.820Z | 61.5% | 34.7% | -26.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:06:46.029Z | 71.5% | 44.9% | -26.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:11:00.839Z | 65.5% | 36.2% | -29.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:19:43.022Z | 61.5% | 33.3% | -28.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:34:37.919Z | 61.5% | 26.6% | -34.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:38:38.651Z | 55.0% | 23.2% | -31.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:45:16.572Z | 44.5% | 16.5% | -28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:49:39.571Z | 45.5% | 17.8% | -27.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:59:10.148Z | 52.0% | 20.9% | -31.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:59:51.639Z | 52.0% | 20.9% | -31.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:02:43.181Z | 52.0% | 16.7% | -35.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:08:38.822Z | 29.0% | 7.1% | -21.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:13:59.420Z | 24.5% | 8.6% | -15.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:21:35.074Z | 33.0% | 10.8% | -22.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:29:40.936Z | 28.0% | 7.7% | -20.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:33:39.904Z | 27.0% | 5.5% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:39:51.770Z | 16.5% | 3.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:09.776Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:15.961Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:59:22.722Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:59:42.931Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:00:23.135Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 27.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 20.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.6%. Marx fair UP is 27.1%.