VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.64 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 5.5%Marx Fair UP 0.3%
Aug 06, 04:01 PMAug 06, 04:51 PMAug 06, 05:42 PMAug 06, 06:33 PMAug 06, 07:24 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T19:00:29.160Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:02:10.645Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:02:32.594Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:03:09.911Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:04:15.244Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:05:24.243Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:05:42.445Z | 9.5% | 1.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:06:10.266Z | 9.5% | 1.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:07:10.230Z | 5.0% | 1.0% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:07:34.247Z | 5.0% | 1.0% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:08:10.402Z | 5.0% | 1.0% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:09:33.674Z | 5.0% | 0.8% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:10:10.608Z | 6.0% | 0.8% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:13:10.521Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:13:23.788Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:14:10.180Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:15:15.020Z | 5.0% | 0.7% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:16:09.760Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:16:25.857Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:16:41.969Z | 6.5% | 0.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:17:11.434Z | 6.5% | 0.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:18:40.752Z | 6.5% | 0.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:19:09.869Z | 6.5% | 0.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:20:12.600Z | 6.0% | 0.4% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:20:36.416Z | 6.0% | 0.4% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:21:09.906Z | 5.5% | 0.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:22:39.375Z | 5.5% | 0.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:23:14.529Z | 5.5% | 0.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:24:16.972Z | 5.5% | 0.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:24:42.493Z | 5.5% | 0.3% | -5.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 27.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 20.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.6%. Marx fair UP is 27.1%.