VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +23.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.9%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 06, 08:00 AMAug 06, 08:57 AMAug 06, 09:54 AMAug 06, 10:50 AMAug 06, 11:47 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T11:14:11.363Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:15:56.228Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:16:11.794Z | 3.5% | 1.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:18:12.748Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:18:26.703Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:20:09.766Z | 5.1% | 5.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:20:22.123Z | 5.1% | 5.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:21:13.581Z | 4.0% | 5.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:22:28.133Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:22:41.205Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:24:13.910Z | 3.4% | 100.0% | +96.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:24:39.906Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:27:25.709Z | 2.7% | 100.0% | +97.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:28:12.272Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:29:34.485Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:30:12.630Z | 2.7% | 100.0% | +97.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:31:12.791Z | 2.7% | 2.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:31:24.980Z | 2.7% | 2.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:31:39.709Z | 2.7% | 100.0% | +97.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:33:10.018Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:34:14.693Z | 1.8% | 2.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:35:22.103Z | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:36:15.409Z | 1.1% | 2.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:37:28.103Z | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:39:27.721Z | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:41:14.026Z | 0.9% | 2.0% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:43:26.273Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:51.211Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:13.282Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:36.945Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 67.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 74.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 23.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 74.0%, gross edge 25.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 23.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.5%.