VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +23.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 08:03 AMAug 06, 09:03 AMAug 06, 10:02 AMAug 06, 11:02 AMAug 06, 12:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T08:38:41.572Z | 64.0% | 98.6% | +34.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:44:16.235Z | 65.5% | 98.8% | +33.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:48:40.501Z | 62.5% | 99.1% | +36.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:52:37.625Z | 66.5% | 99.3% | +32.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:58:24.635Z | 67.5% | 99.5% | +32.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:58:32.884Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:59:13.008Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:04:40.117Z | 71.5% | 99.2% | +27.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:06:39.504Z | 65.0% | 99.1% | +34.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:08:35.709Z | 62.5% | 98.6% | +36.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:17:43.991Z | 48.5% | 98.7% | +50.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:37:39.003Z | 32.5% | 97.9% | +65.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:47:46.042Z | 27.5% | 97.6% | +70.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:55:49.315Z | 29.0% | 98.5% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:59:14.940Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:59:25.350Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:00:45.457Z | 27.0% | 98.5% | +71.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:07:42.552Z | 23.0% | 98.1% | +75.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:17:39.936Z | 13.5% | 98.3% | +84.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:23:38.687Z | 20.5% | 99.1% | +78.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:29:10.860Z | 22.0% | 99.3% | +77.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:39:37.114Z | 20.0% | 99.4% | +79.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:47:48.044Z | 11.0% | 99.4% | +88.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:55:42.936Z | 10.0% | 99.5% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:59:09.721Z | 9.0% | 9.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:59:24.227Z | 9.0% | 9.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:24:39.906Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:59:11.315Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:59:39.328Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:01:34.705Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 67.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 74.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 23.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 74.0%, gross edge 25.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 23.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.5%.