VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.36 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 66.0%Marx Fair UP 99.4%
Aug 05, 04:01 AMAug 05, 04:42 AMAug 05, 05:24 AMAug 05, 06:06 AMAug 05, 06:48 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T06:27:04.431Z | 74.0% | 73.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:28:04.665Z | 74.0% | 73.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:28:09.239Z | 74.0% | 73.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:29:04.599Z | 74.0% | 73.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:30:08.961Z | 74.0% | 73.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:30:19.398Z | 78.0% | 77.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:31:04.528Z | 78.0% | 77.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:32:04.547Z | 78.0% | 77.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:32:18.512Z | 78.0% | 77.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:32:36.033Z | 78.0% | 99.4% | +21.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:33:04.462Z | 78.0% | 99.4% | +21.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:34:12.656Z | 79.0% | 99.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:34:39.193Z | 79.0% | 99.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:35:04.604Z | 79.0% | 99.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:36:04.595Z | 80.5% | 99.5% | +19.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:38:04.528Z | 80.5% | 99.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:39:04.458Z | 80.5% | 99.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:39:30.632Z | 80.5% | 99.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:39:31.299Z | 80.5% | 99.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:41:04.426Z | 79.0% | 99.6% | +20.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:41:34.373Z | 79.0% | 99.6% | +20.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:42:04.536Z | 79.0% | 99.6% | +20.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:43:04.432Z | 80.5% | 99.7% | +19.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:43:30.017Z | 80.5% | 99.7% | +19.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:43:30.810Z | 80.5% | 99.7% | +19.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:44:06.069Z | 71.0% | 99.7% | +28.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:36.620Z | 80.5% | 99.6% | +19.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:37.586Z | 80.5% | 99.6% | +19.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:47:34.482Z | 71.0% | 99.4% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:48:04.545Z | 66.0% | 99.4% | +33.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 72.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 20.7%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 71.7%.