VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.36 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.6%
Aug 05, 04:03 AMAug 05, 05:03 AMAug 05, 06:04 AMAug 05, 07:04 AMAug 05, 08:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T04:58:31.524Z | 47.0% | 90.6% | +43.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:14:28.446Z | 65.5% | 96.7% | +31.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:30:32.206Z | 84.0% | 99.1% | +15.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:59:04.463Z | 75.0% | 99.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:59:37.196Z | 75.0% | 99.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:01:29.668Z | 77.5% | 98.8% | +21.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:11:34.748Z | 74.0% | 98.9% | +24.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:13:50.585Z | 74.0% | 99.3% | +25.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:19:42.943Z | 78.0% | 99.2% | +21.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:24:32.563Z | 70.5% | 99.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:30:35.635Z | 78.0% | 99.4% | +21.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:34:39.193Z | 79.0% | 99.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:43:30.810Z | 80.5% | 99.7% | +19.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:37.586Z | 80.5% | 99.6% | +19.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:47:34.482Z | 71.0% | 99.4% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:49:32.963Z | 66.0% | 99.4% | +33.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:53:42.613Z | 71.0% | 99.4% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:58:31.458Z | 68.0% | 99.7% | +31.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:58:31.890Z | 68.0% | 99.7% | +31.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:59:04.730Z | 66.5% | 99.7% | +33.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:09:36.526Z | 55.5% | 99.8% | +44.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:13:45.448Z | 47.0% | 99.6% | +52.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:29:31.289Z | 14.5% | 99.4% | +84.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:33:36.857Z | 14.5% | 99.7% | +85.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:39:30.945Z | 7.0% | 99.8% | +92.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:49:32.592Z | 1.3% | 100.0% | +98.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:59:04.685Z | 2.9% | 100.0% | +97.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:59:28.906Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:03:17.689Z | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:04:50.987Z | 0.0% | 0.6% | +0.6 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 72.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 20.7%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 71.7%.