VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +59.39 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 98.7%Marx Fair UP 98.6%
Aug 01, 04:00 AMAug 01, 04:59 AMAug 01, 05:59 AMAug 01, 06:59 AMAug 01, 07:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T04:00:04.706Z | 49.5% | 0.9% | -48.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:13:04.850Z | 49.0% | 0.8% | -48.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:49:32.584Z | 70.5% | 0.7% | -69.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:56:54.461Z | 70.5% | 0.8% | -69.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:58:32.520Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:58:38.042Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:03:58.108Z | 70.5% | 0.5% | -70.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:56:25.745Z | 51.0% | 0.1% | -50.9 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:58:01.348Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:58:44.515Z | 56.5% | 0.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:59:07.761Z | 56.5% | 0.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:03:48.291Z | 58.0% | 0.1% | -57.9 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:58:57.545Z | 83.0% | 83.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:59:36.609Z | 83.0% | 83.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:14.516Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:59:41.996Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 38.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 38.4%, gross edge 61.9%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.