VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +59.39 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 98.6%
Aug 01, 04:00 AMAug 01, 05:01 AMAug 01, 06:02 AMAug 01, 07:03 AMAug 01, 08:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T07:42:07.601Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:43:18.558Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:43:37.247Z | 90.3% | 0.0% | -90.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:44:47.743Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:45:43.606Z | 90.3% | 90.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:46:21.711Z | 90.3% | 0.0% | -90.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:46:35.310Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:47:28.795Z | 90.3% | 90.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:48:08.177Z | 90.3% | 90.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:49:11.088Z | 90.3% | 90.0% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:49:22.547Z | 90.0% | 90.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:50:13.637Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:50:16.745Z | 90.3% | 0.0% | -90.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:52:50.907Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:53:43.742Z | 96.9% | 95.0% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:53:43.998Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:53:55.687Z | 96.9% | 96.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:55:11.501Z | 97.4% | 97.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:56:12.180Z | 97.4% | 97.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:56:26.157Z | 97.4% | 97.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:57:07.280Z | 97.4% | 97.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:02.165Z | 97.4% | 0.0% | -97.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:14.516Z | 98.7% | 0.0% | -98.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:59:41.996Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:00:10.297Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:01:04.495Z | 98.7% | 0.0% | -98.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:02:07.582Z | 98.7% | 0.0% | -98.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:03:07.558Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:03:13.880Z | 98.7% | 98.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:04:32.649Z | 100.0% | 98.6% | -1.3 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 38.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 38.4%, gross edge 61.9%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.