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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +22.83 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%52.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY22.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+22.83 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-1.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 31, 08:02 AMJul 31, 09:02 AMJul 31, 10:03 AMJul 31, 11:03 AMJul 31, 12:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T08:02:30.193Z55.5%1.9%-53.6 pp
2026-07-31T08:57:41.747Z42.5%0.4%-42.1 pp
2026-07-31T08:58:22.684Z42.5%0.4%-42.1 pp
2026-07-31T09:00:27.289Z42.5%0.3%-42.2 pp
2026-07-31T09:02:32.279Z42.5%0.3%-42.2 pp
2026-07-31T09:18:46.293Z31.0%0.1%-30.9 pp
2026-07-31T09:57:41.076Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T09:57:51.648Z18.5%21.5%+3.0 pp
2026-07-31T09:58:43.500Z21.5%0.0%-21.5 pp
2026-07-31T10:03:26.118Z18.5%0.0%-18.5 pp
2026-07-31T10:18:32.360Z22.0%0.0%-22.0 pp
2026-07-31T10:30:17.506Z26.5%0.0%-26.5 pp
2026-07-31T10:58:46.230Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T10:59:44.745Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T11:58:54.680Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-31T11:59:01.631Z5.0%0.0%-5.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:01:17.008Z5.0%0.0%-5.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:04:04.862Z0.0%0.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 22.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 22.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 26.2%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 22.8%. Marx fair UP is 22.8%.