VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +22.83 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Jul 31, 08:00 AMJul 31, 09:01 AMJul 31, 10:02 AMJul 31, 11:03 AMJul 31, 12:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T11:18:05.644Z | 40.0% | 44.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:18:34.786Z | 40.0% | 40.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:22:33.906Z | 40.0% | 0.0% | -40.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:27:24.155Z | 60.0% | 60.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:29:11.928Z | 48.0% | 0.0% | -48.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:30:03.948Z | 43.5% | 0.0% | -43.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:30:04.124Z | 48.0% | 0.0% | -48.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:31:26.057Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:32:20.184Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:33:00.863Z | 39.0% | 0.0% | -39.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:34:06.499Z | 39.0% | 0.0% | -39.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:40:50.939Z | 22.0% | 22.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:40:51.180Z | 22.0% | 22.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:42:05.517Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:42:06.215Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:43:51.449Z | 22.0% | 22.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:43:51.463Z | 22.0% | 22.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:44:50.283Z | 16.0% | 22.0% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:48:28.533Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:50:51.579Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:55:47.071Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:57:00.694Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:58:08.671Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:58:09.100Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:58:54.680Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:59:01.631Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:00:16.832Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:01:14.908Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:01:17.008Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:04:04.862Z | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 22.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 22.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 26.2%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 22.8%. Marx fair UP is 22.8%.