VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.36 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.2%
Jul 31, 12:30 AMJul 31, 01:22 AMJul 31, 02:15 AMJul 31, 03:08 AMJul 31, 04:00 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T00:30:06.479Z | 52.5% | 94.3% | +41.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:32:00.298Z | 49.5% | 95.7% | +46.2 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:33:59.347Z | 49.5% | 94.7% | +45.2 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:42:57.196Z | 54.0% | 94.9% | +40.9 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:49:03.523Z | 53.0% | 95.8% | +42.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:54:15.431Z | 50.5% | 94.1% | +43.6 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:55:24.771Z | 44.0% | 94.1% | +50.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:58:32.170Z | 44.0% | 44.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:59:06.487Z | 44.0% | 93.8% | +49.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:03:56.004Z | 43.0% | 98.5% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:37:07.691Z | 81.0% | 99.8% | +18.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:59:24.615Z | 35.5% | 92.7% | +57.2 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:59:27.288Z | 28.5% | 92.7% | +64.2 pp |
| 2026-07-31T02:59:14.605Z | 3.8% | 73.4% | +69.6 pp |
| 2026-07-31T02:59:24.957Z | 3.8% | 73.4% | +69.6 pp |
| 2026-07-31T03:57:17.244Z | 0.1% | 10.2% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T03:59:44.897Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T04:00:38.544Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 8.6%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 40.4%.