VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.41 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 39.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 11.1%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.8%. Marx fair UP is 37.9%.