VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.41 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 14.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 12:01 PMJul 30, 01:00 PMJul 30, 02:00 PMJul 30, 02:59 PMJul 30, 03:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T12:01:28.671Z | 50.0% | 97.6% | +47.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:13:04.054Z | 59.5% | 99.0% | +39.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:29:41.590Z | 57.5% | 99.1% | +41.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:58:21.455Z | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:59:36.241Z | 56.0% | 99.6% | +43.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:59:58.241Z | 60.0% | 99.6% | +39.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:30:47.707Z | 53.5% | 99.5% | +46.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:40:35.797Z | 39.5% | 99.1% | +59.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:54:19.692Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:56:36.188Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:30.520Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:59:57.163Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:03:36.000Z | 67.0% | 100.0% | +33.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:33:35.720Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:59:23.085Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:59:57.261Z | 35.0% | 49.5% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:03:38.838Z | 30.0% | 99.9% | +69.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:19:45.449Z | 36.5% | 100.0% | +63.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:40:10.516Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:42:53.572Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:52:15.262Z | 41.0% | 100.0% | +59.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:58:35.365Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:59:00.118Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 39.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 11.1%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.8%. Marx fair UP is 37.9%.