VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +10.00 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 98.5%
Jul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 09:01 PMJul 28, 10:02 PMJul 28, 11:03 PMJul 29, 12:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T23:11:38.741Z | 9.0% | 21.2% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:13:58.494Z | 16.5% | 21.2% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:15:30.860Z | 9.0% | 18.5% | +9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:17:30.434Z | 9.0% | 24.2% | +15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:19:51.568Z | 4.0% | 20.1% | +16.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:20:33.358Z | 9.0% | 20.1% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:21:02.345Z | 4.0% | 20.1% | +16.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:21:41.604Z | 4.0% | 20.1% | +16.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:23:30.391Z | 4.0% | 19.7% | +15.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:23:41.006Z | 4.0% | 19.7% | +15.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:24:41.942Z | 3.5% | 11.4% | +7.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:25:34.120Z | 3.5% | 11.4% | +7.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:27:29.393Z | 3.5% | 13.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:30:33.024Z | 3.5% | 17.2% | +13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:33:34.295Z | 3.5% | 48.6% | +45.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:34:52.216Z | 3.5% | 48.6% | +45.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:36:29.157Z | 3.5% | 62.5% | +59.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:38:30.239Z | 3.5% | 50.5% | +47.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:40:01.907Z | 3.5% | 64.4% | +60.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:41:30.571Z | 3.5% | 64.4% | +60.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:45:30.194Z | 3.5% | 75.5% | +72.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:50:11.434Z | 3.5% | 97.3% | +93.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:50:30.286Z | 3.5% | 97.3% | +93.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:52:29.133Z | 3.5% | 97.5% | +94.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:55:15.561Z | 3.5% | 99.9% | +96.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:57:27.633Z | 3.5% | 99.9% | +96.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:01:41.010Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:03:02.965Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:03:08.760Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:04:41.893Z | 3.5% | 98.5% | +95.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 82.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 67.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 70.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 8.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.7%. Marx fair UP is 82.6%.