VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +10.00 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 99.9%
Jul 28, 08:04 PMJul 28, 09:02 PMJul 28, 10:00 PMJul 28, 10:59 PMJul 28, 11:57 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:53:20.139Z | 69.0% | 81.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:57:18.450Z | 69.0% | 81.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:59:45.556Z | 67.0% | 81.0% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:03:22.209Z | 67.0% | 75.9% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:09:22.930Z | 67.0% | 82.6% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:13:25.018Z | 68.0% | 82.2% | +14.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:14:53.672Z | 68.5% | 79.6% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:20:23.974Z | 69.0% | 80.2% | +11.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:22:23.800Z | 67.0% | 81.3% | +14.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:31:23.760Z | 56.5% | 68.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:32:22.287Z | 56.5% | 70.6% | +14.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:33:28.855Z | 56.5% | 68.7% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:35:27.746Z | 56.5% | 67.5% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:38:26.304Z | 56.5% | 69.4% | +12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:40:29.057Z | 56.5% | 68.0% | +11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:43:22.723Z | 46.5% | 72.6% | +26.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:44:50.574Z | 49.0% | 70.6% | +21.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:48:29.544Z | 49.5% | 60.9% | +11.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:51:24.943Z | 33.5% | 56.7% | +23.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:55:32.431Z | 33.5% | 54.8% | +21.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:56:29.146Z | 30.0% | 60.5% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:57:28.450Z | 30.0% | 66.7% | +36.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:58:29.229Z | 30.0% | 62.2% | +32.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:58:47.354Z | 29.0% | 62.2% | +33.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:59:54.980Z | 28.5% | 59.5% | +31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:02:30.589Z | 29.0% | 49.9% | +20.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:05:33.919Z | 19.5% | 38.2% | +18.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:35:30.856Z | 3.5% | 63.4% | +59.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:55:15.561Z | 3.5% | 99.9% | +96.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:57:27.633Z | 3.5% | 99.9% | +96.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 82.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 67.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 70.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 8.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.7%. Marx fair UP is 82.6%.