VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +14.41 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 6.0%Marx Fair UP 6.0%
Jul 28, 04:01 PMJul 28, 05:01 PMJul 28, 06:02 PMJul 28, 07:03 PMJul 28, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T19:11:38.419Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:12:46.165Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:15:44.448Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:16:40.203Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:44.653Z | 13.0% | 0.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:52.375Z | 13.0% | 0.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:19:41.004Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:21:40.449Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:22:41.711Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:24:41.100Z | 15.0% | 0.0% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:26:40.719Z | 15.0% | 0.0% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:27:46.305Z | 7.0% | 0.0% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:29:30.854Z | 7.0% | 0.0% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:30:38.688Z | 7.0% | 0.0% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:32:42.337Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:34:52.678Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:35:40.417Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:37:45.707Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:47:55.922Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:50:15.213Z | 23.0% | 0.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:53:02.458Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:55:02.421Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:56:41.857Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:59:51.720Z | 6.0% | 0.0% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:00:05.845Z | 6.0% | 0.0% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:00:48.546Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:01.212Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:46.353Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:03:38.869Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:04:12.221Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 24.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 84.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 84.2%, gross edge 16.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.