VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +14.41 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 6.0%Marx Fair UP 6.0%
Jul 28, 04:05 PMJul 28, 05:05 PMJul 28, 06:04 PMJul 28, 07:04 PMJul 28, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T16:05:44.717Z | 49.5% | 0.1% | -49.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:18:49.855Z | 42.0% | 0.1% | -41.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:20:47.271Z | 41.0% | 0.1% | -40.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:29:56.936Z | 42.0% | 0.1% | -41.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:41:56.604Z | 43.0% | 0.0% | -43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:56:58.925Z | 59.5% | 0.2% | -59.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:59:59.570Z | 65.0% | 0.2% | -64.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:07:05.161Z | 58.5% | 0.1% | -58.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:22:05.669Z | 32.0% | 0.0% | -32.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:30:38.797Z | 34.5% | 0.0% | -34.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:45:35.557Z | 15.5% | 0.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:56:05.056Z | 18.0% | 18.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:56:25.831Z | 18.0% | 0.0% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:59:24.726Z | 19.0% | 0.0% | -19.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:02:43.773Z | 21.0% | 0.0% | -21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:17:47.992Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:33:18.989Z | 19.0% | 0.0% | -19.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:48:21.846Z | 24.0% | 0.0% | -24.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:48:22.573Z | 24.0% | 0.0% | -24.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:56:28.207Z | 16.0% | 0.0% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:00:35.023Z | 16.0% | 0.0% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:15:44.448Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:52.375Z | 13.0% | 0.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:34:52.678Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:55:02.421Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:59:51.720Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:04:12.221Z | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 24.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 84.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 84.2%, gross edge 16.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.