VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +28.03 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.6%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 01:00 PMJul 28, 02:01 PMJul 28, 03:02 PMJul 28, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T15:22:40.292Z | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:24:30.909Z | 81.0% | 81.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:24:40.056Z | 81.0% | 81.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:26:30.991Z | 84.0% | 0.0% | -84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:27:31.182Z | 84.0% | 0.0% | -84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:28:02.580Z | 84.0% | 0.0% | -84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:29:30.992Z | 94.0% | 94.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:29:44.944Z | 94.0% | 94.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:31:31.071Z | 90.5% | 0.0% | -90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:32:04.265Z | 90.5% | 0.0% | -90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:34:04.339Z | 91.0% | 0.0% | -91.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:34:32.988Z | 91.0% | 0.0% | -91.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:36:31.131Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:37:38.743Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:37:44.855Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:40:54.840Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:41:36.567Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:17.268Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:48.680Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:47:15.035Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:47:44.121Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:49:43.777Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:15.179Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:43.667Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:52:15.141Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:46.184Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:46.315Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:15.448Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:44.598Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:03:15.199Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 33.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 70.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 70.0%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.