VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +28.03 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.6%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 01:00 PMJul 28, 02:00 PMJul 28, 03:01 PMJul 28, 04:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:59:56.054Z | 58.5% | 0.2% | -58.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:55.610Z | 58.5% | 0.1% | -58.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:21:56.745Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:26:05.856Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:27:59.905Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:29:54.718Z | 33.0% | 0.0% | -33.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:33:58.067Z | 32.5% | 0.0% | -32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:36:02.984Z | 28.0% | 0.0% | -28.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:38:01.399Z | 34.0% | 0.0% | -34.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:49:01.295Z | 14.0% | 0.0% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:01.119Z | 13.0% | 0.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:39.605Z | 17.0% | 0.0% | -17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:31.134Z | 18.0% | 0.0% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:58.328Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:56.916Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:28:13.460Z | 19.0% | 0.0% | -19.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:32:00.871Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:38:11.772Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:47:02.999Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:04.598Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:05.437Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:01.308Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:01:02.136Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:07:00.951Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:11:02.066Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:13:02.045Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:18.012Z | 99.6% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:46.160Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:44.598Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 33.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 70.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 70.0%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.