VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +45.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 42.0%Marx Fair UP 42.0%
Jul 28, 08:03 AMJul 28, 09:03 AMJul 28, 10:02 AMJul 28, 11:02 AMJul 28, 12:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T09:37:00.200Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:48:59.972Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:51:00.922Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:55:30.916Z | 45.0% | 0.0% | -45.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:58:56.864Z | 45.0% | 0.0% | -45.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:02:55.551Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:14:57.189Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:57.426Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:21:02.317Z | 35.0% | 0.0% | -35.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:22:58.166Z | 33.0% | 0.0% | -33.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:25:39.893Z | 25.5% | 0.0% | -25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:00.493Z | 29.5% | 0.0% | -29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:41:12.472Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:43:56.077Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:56.551Z | 66.5% | 0.0% | -66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:31.948Z | 61.0% | 0.0% | -61.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:59.465Z | 61.0% | 0.0% | -61.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:12.360Z | 47.0% | 0.0% | -47.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:03:03.680Z | 47.0% | 0.0% | -47.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:59.112Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:11:02.032Z | 32.5% | 0.0% | -32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:16:58.108Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:18:58.186Z | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:23:01.211Z | 36.0% | 0.0% | -36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:25:48.830Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:57.964Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:57.381Z | 17.0% | 0.0% | -17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:30.967Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:49.713Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:56.541Z | 42.0% | 42.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.2%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.