VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +45.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 42.0%Marx Fair UP 42.0%
Jul 28, 08:00 AMJul 28, 09:00 AMJul 28, 10:01 AMJul 28, 11:01 AMJul 28, 12:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:31:30.960Z | 39.0% | 0.0% | -39.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:32:02.542Z | 39.0% | 0.0% | -39.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:33:30.977Z | 49.0% | 0.0% | -49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:33:58.300Z | 49.0% | 0.0% | -49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:34:31.014Z | 49.0% | 0.0% | -49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:30.866Z | 55.0% | 53.5% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:39.895Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:35.800Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:38:44.612Z | 53.0% | 0.0% | -53.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:38:44.715Z | 55.0% | 0.0% | -55.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:11.992Z | 53.0% | 53.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:50.913Z | 53.0% | 53.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:30.972Z | 53.0% | 53.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:43:30.993Z | 53.0% | 53.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:05.604Z | 53.0% | 53.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:30.955Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:39.464Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:45:31.050Z | 31.5% | 17.0% | -14.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:34.547Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:43.990Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:34.999Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:40.194Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z | 35.0% | 35.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:37.717Z | 35.0% | 35.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:30.967Z | 14.0% | 35.0% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:19.522Z | 35.0% | 35.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:39.837Z | 35.0% | 35.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:00:07.127Z | 14.0% | 0.0% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:00:30.959Z | 42.0% | 0.0% | -42.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:56.541Z | 42.0% | 42.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.2%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.