VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +29.30 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.3%Marx Fair UP 0.2%
Jul 27, 12:02 PMJul 27, 01:02 PMJul 27, 02:02 PMJul 27, 03:02 PMJul 27, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T13:00:45.157Z | 49.5% | 80.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:02:43.469Z | 49.5% | 78.9% | +29.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:08:42.178Z | 48.0% | 80.3% | +32.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:13:54.861Z | 48.0% | 79.6% | +31.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:22:51.788Z | 40.0% | 75.2% | +35.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:25:56.146Z | 37.5% | 72.9% | +35.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:28:55.368Z | 37.5% | 70.8% | +33.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:34:55.453Z | 32.0% | 84.5% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:45:59.293Z | 82.5% | 99.8% | +17.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:47:59.477Z | 82.5% | 99.5% | +17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:51:59.559Z | 82.0% | 99.7% | +17.7 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:56:00.287Z | 86.5% | 98.6% | +12.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:57:59.371Z | 77.0% | 97.9% | +20.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:30.777Z | 61.0% | 94.8% | +33.8 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:59.799Z | 77.0% | 94.8% | +17.8 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:05:59.466Z | 67.0% | 98.0% | +31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:12:04.459Z | 58.5% | 96.7% | +38.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:16:04.076Z | 66.5% | 98.9% | +32.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:18:01.479Z | 66.5% | 98.6% | +32.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:34:04.879Z | 22.0% | 46.9% | +24.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:55:30.818Z | 12.5% | 24.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:58:05.117Z | 12.5% | 24.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:59:48.504Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:02:05.356Z | 13.0% | 43.9% | +30.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:08:28.472Z | 11.5% | 36.1% | +24.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:13:04.679Z | 7.5% | 21.5% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:19:04.799Z | 8.5% | 18.8% | +10.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:58:59.258Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:59:31.853Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:03:00.417Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 83.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 30.9%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.5%. Marx fair UP is 81.9%.