VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +29.30 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.3%Marx Fair UP 0.2%
Jul 27, 12:00 PMJul 27, 01:01 PMJul 27, 02:02 PMJul 27, 03:03 PMJul 27, 04:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T15:29:30.728Z | 4.0% | 11.5% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:31:30.764Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:32:30.841Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:32:34.514Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:34:30.754Z | 0.7% | 5.8% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:35:01.242Z | 3.0% | 5.8% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:37:00.599Z | 3.0% | 1.1% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:39:31.010Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:40:45.091Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:42:30.772Z | 0.7% | 2.9% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:43:00.246Z | 0.7% | 2.9% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:43:30.726Z | 0.7% | 2.9% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:45:00.945Z | 0.6% | 1.9% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:45:30.767Z | 0.6% | 1.9% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:47:30.831Z | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:48:30.744Z | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:48:34.070Z | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:50:30.846Z | 0.4% | 0.7% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:51:03.661Z | 0.4% | 0.7% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:51:30.740Z | 0.4% | 0.7% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:53:01.272Z | 0.4% | 2.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:53:45.478Z | 0.1% | 2.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:54:30.771Z | 0.1% | 2.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:56:59.020Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T15:58:39.144Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:00:36.738Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:01:30.740Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:02:30.903Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:03:00.417Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:04:30.770Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 83.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 30.9%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.5%. Marx fair UP is 81.9%.