VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +17.57 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 93.5%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Jul 26, 09:31 PMJul 26, 09:41 PMJul 26, 09:51 PMJul 26, 10:02 PMJul 26, 10:12 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T21:31:36.013Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:31:57.161Z | 72.5% | 93.2% | +20.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:33:51.375Z | 72.5% | 92.4% | +19.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:35:32.540Z | 72.5% | 93.0% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:36:30.288Z | 72.5% | 92.2% | +19.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:36:41.671Z | 69.5% | 92.2% | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:37:23.168Z | 72.5% | 92.7% | +20.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:38:33.699Z | 72.5% | 93.6% | +21.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:39:20.683Z | 72.5% | 92.8% | +20.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:40:34.951Z | 72.5% | 92.2% | +19.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:41:53.042Z | 71.5% | 93.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:42:39.484Z | 69.5% | 93.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:44:27.526Z | 69.5% | 93.8% | +24.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:47:06.476Z | 76.5% | 93.5% | +17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:47:28.223Z | 71.5% | 93.5% | +22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:48:35.452Z | 71.5% | 94.1% | +22.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:49:25.852Z | 71.5% | 95.8% | +24.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:51:25.935Z | 76.5% | 95.2% | +18.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:52:12.993Z | 77.5% | 95.2% | +17.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:54:25.926Z | 76.5% | 95.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:56:33.009Z | 77.5% | 96.3% | +18.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:57:23.748Z | 83.0% | 95.9% | +12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:57:31.654Z | 77.5% | 95.9% | +18.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T21:59:25.426Z | 77.5% | 95.6% | +18.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:01:49.198Z | 77.5% | 99.2% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:02:35.956Z | 93.0% | 99.2% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:03:35.737Z | 83.0% | 99.7% | +16.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:07:02.611Z | 93.0% | 99.8% | +6.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:07:39.305Z | 93.5% | 99.8% | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:12:43.034Z | 93.5% | 99.8% | +6.3 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 92.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 72.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 73.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 20.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.7%. Marx fair UP is 93.5%.