Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 4-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +17.57 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY72.5%73.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY92.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.57 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN25.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 93.0%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 26, 09:47 PMJul 26, 09:52 PMJul 26, 09:57 PMJul 26, 10:02 PMJul 26, 10:07 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-26T21:47:28.223Z71.5%93.5%+22.0 pp
2026-07-26T21:48:35.452Z71.5%94.1%+22.6 pp
2026-07-26T21:56:33.009Z77.5%96.3%+18.8 pp
2026-07-26T21:59:25.426Z77.5%95.6%+18.1 pp
2026-07-26T22:01:49.198Z77.5%99.2%+21.7 pp
2026-07-26T22:03:35.737Z83.0%99.7%+16.7 pp
2026-07-26T22:07:02.611Z93.0%99.8%+6.8 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 92.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 72.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 73.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 20.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.7%. Marx fair UP is 93.5%.