VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +36.31 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 29.5%Marx Fair UP 87.7%
Jul 26, 05:16 PMJul 26, 05:30 PMJul 26, 05:44 PMJul 26, 05:59 PMJul 26, 06:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T17:28:35.034Z | 39.0% | 84.6% | +45.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:32:02.263Z | 44.0% | 86.5% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:32:34.265Z | 37.5% | 86.5% | +49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:33:30.994Z | 37.5% | 87.3% | +49.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:34:23.062Z | 37.5% | 87.1% | +49.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:37:09.257Z | 33.0% | 84.7% | +51.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:37:30.498Z | 44.0% | 84.7% | +40.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:38:34.205Z | 44.0% | 83.6% | +39.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:40:30.455Z | 44.0% | 82.5% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:42:16.142Z | 28.5% | 82.5% | +54.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:45:51.641Z | 28.5% | 83.6% | +55.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:47:29.304Z | 28.5% | 84.2% | +55.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:47:35.881Z | 29.0% | 84.2% | +55.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:48:28.664Z | 28.5% | 83.7% | +55.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:50:25.072Z | 28.5% | 84.2% | +55.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:52:32.932Z | 29.0% | 84.8% | +55.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:52:45.955Z | 31.5% | 84.8% | +53.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:53:29.219Z | 29.0% | 85.4% | +56.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:54:26.193Z | 29.0% | 85.7% | +56.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:56:31.173Z | 29.0% | 83.7% | +54.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:57:51.405Z | 26.5% | 83.7% | +57.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:01:32.470Z | 26.5% | 84.7% | +58.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:02:34.010Z | 26.5% | 85.5% | +59.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:02:55.290Z | 27.0% | 85.5% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:03:29.682Z | 26.5% | 85.2% | +58.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:08:01.483Z | 27.5% | 86.5% | +59.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:08:28.454Z | 27.0% | 86.5% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:11:30.743Z | 27.0% | 86.8% | +59.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:12:29.214Z | 27.0% | 87.7% | +60.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:13:10.852Z | 29.5% | 87.7% | +58.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 87.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 38.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.3%. Marx fair UP is 87.6%.