Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +36.31 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%49.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY87.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+36.31 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-47.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 29.5%Marx Fair UP 87.7%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 26, 05:16 PMJul 26, 05:30 PMJul 26, 05:45 PMJul 26, 05:59 PMJul 26, 06:13 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-26T17:16:53.217Z48.5%87.6%+39.1 pp
2026-07-26T17:20:33.551Z48.5%85.7%+37.2 pp
2026-07-26T17:23:25.515Z43.0%85.0%+42.0 pp
2026-07-26T17:27:33.602Z39.0%84.1%+45.1 pp
2026-07-26T17:28:35.034Z39.0%84.6%+45.6 pp
2026-07-26T17:33:30.994Z37.5%87.3%+49.8 pp
2026-07-26T17:38:34.205Z44.0%83.6%+39.6 pp
2026-07-26T17:50:25.072Z28.5%84.2%+55.7 pp
2026-07-26T17:53:29.219Z29.0%85.4%+56.4 pp
2026-07-26T17:54:26.193Z29.0%85.7%+56.7 pp
2026-07-26T17:56:31.173Z29.0%83.7%+54.7 pp
2026-07-26T17:57:51.405Z26.5%83.7%+57.2 pp
2026-07-26T18:03:29.682Z26.5%85.2%+58.7 pp
2026-07-26T18:08:28.454Z27.0%86.5%+59.5 pp
2026-07-26T18:11:30.743Z27.0%86.8%+59.8 pp
2026-07-26T18:12:29.214Z27.0%87.7%+60.7 pp
2026-07-26T18:13:10.852Z29.5%87.7%+58.2 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 87.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 38.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.3%. Marx fair UP is 87.6%.