VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.66 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 80.5%Marx Fair UP 97.0%
Jul 26, 12:37 PMJul 26, 01:01 PMJul 26, 01:25 PMJul 26, 01:49 PMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T13:40:20.419Z | 40.0% | 83.0% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:41:19.263Z | 44.5% | 85.4% | +40.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:42:20.944Z | 44.5% | 87.7% | +43.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:44:15.355Z | 58.5% | 87.7% | +29.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:46:20.706Z | 58.5% | 89.4% | +30.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:47:22.054Z | 58.5% | 88.2% | +29.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:49:23.702Z | 55.5% | 87.9% | +32.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:50:29.008Z | 60.5% | 87.9% | +27.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:52:30.601Z | 60.5% | 87.3% | +26.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:54:35.726Z | 54.5% | 87.0% | +32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:56:24.774Z | 55.5% | 87.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:58:32.050Z | 55.5% | 86.5% | +31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:00:13.439Z | 54.5% | 87.2% | +32.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:00:20.584Z | 72.0% | 87.2% | +15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:01:31.500Z | 53.0% | 88.1% | +35.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:02:22.678Z | 53.0% | 88.8% | +35.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:03:33.991Z | 53.0% | 90.7% | +37.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:05:31.266Z | 72.0% | 93.7% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:05:49.694Z | 86.5% | 93.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:06:29.317Z | 72.0% | 96.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:07:22.861Z | 72.0% | 94.7% | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:08:39.161Z | 72.0% | 97.9% | +25.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:09:23.122Z | 72.0% | 97.1% | +25.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:10:23.594Z | 72.0% | 96.5% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:10:45.667Z | 86.5% | 96.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:01.832Z | 80.5% | 96.5% | +16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:23.700Z | 86.5% | 97.0% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:12:18.541Z | 80.5% | 97.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:12:32.955Z | 80.5% | 96.1% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:22.015Z | 80.5% | 97.0% | +16.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 83.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 62.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 63.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.3%, gross edge 30.2%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.6%. Marx fair UP is 80.2%.