VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +18.66 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 80.5%Marx Fair UP 97.0%
Jul 26, 12:45 PMJul 26, 01:07 PMJul 26, 01:29 PMJul 26, 01:51 PMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T12:45:15.390Z | 56.5% | 80.2% | +23.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:46:20.227Z | 56.5% | 78.2% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:47:19.899Z | 56.5% | 77.8% | +21.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:54:23.397Z | 41.5% | 79.1% | +37.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:58:25.927Z | 41.0% | 78.6% | +37.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:00:27.745Z | 45.5% | 78.6% | +33.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:03:17.473Z | 41.0% | 76.6% | +35.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:05:34.349Z | 41.0% | 75.2% | +34.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:11:27.548Z | 33.0% | 74.7% | +41.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:12:36.556Z | 32.5% | 75.8% | +43.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:16:35.306Z | 32.5% | 78.5% | +46.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:23:32.159Z | 39.5% | 83.4% | +43.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:28:24.414Z | 47.5% | 82.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:32:20.603Z | 42.0% | 80.3% | +38.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:40:20.419Z | 40.0% | 83.0% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:41:19.263Z | 44.5% | 85.4% | +40.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:42:20.944Z | 44.5% | 87.7% | +43.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:54:35.726Z | 54.5% | 87.0% | +32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:56:24.774Z | 55.5% | 87.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:58:32.050Z | 55.5% | 86.5% | +31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:02:22.678Z | 53.0% | 88.8% | +35.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:05:31.266Z | 72.0% | 93.7% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:06:29.317Z | 72.0% | 96.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:09:23.122Z | 72.0% | 97.1% | +25.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:01.832Z | 80.5% | 97.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:12:18.541Z | 80.5% | 97.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:12:32.955Z | 80.5% | 96.1% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:22.015Z | 80.5% | 97.0% | +16.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 83.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 62.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 63.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.3%, gross edge 30.2%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.6%. Marx fair UP is 80.2%.