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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.16 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY84.5%86.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY92.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-6.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 88.5%Marx Fair UP 94.4%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 26, 09:36 AMJul 26, 09:43 AMJul 26, 09:49 AMJul 26, 09:55 AMJul 26, 10:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-26T09:36:42.764Z84.0%92.8%+8.8 pp
2026-07-26T09:56:44.884Z88.5%95.1%+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T09:59:49.910Z88.5%95.1%+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T10:01:51.380Z88.5%94.4%+5.9 pp
2026-07-26T10:02:03.880Z88.5%94.4%+5.9 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 92.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 84.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 86.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 86.0%, gross edge 6.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 92.8%.