VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.16 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY84.5%86.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY92.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.16 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-6.9%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 88.5%Marx Fair UP 94.4%

Jul 26, 09:20 AMJul 26, 09:30 AMJul 26, 09:41 AMJul 26, 09:51 AMJul 26, 10:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-26T09:20:18.434Z	87.0%	87.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-26T09:20:29.719Z	87.0%	87.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-26T09:21:46.667Z	87.0%	92.7%	+5.7 pp
2026-07-26T09:24:52.852Z	87.0%	93.1%	+6.1 pp
2026-07-26T09:25:24.642Z	86.5%	93.1%	+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T09:28:36.185Z	86.5%	92.7%	+6.2 pp
2026-07-26T09:30:29.588Z	84.0%	92.1%	+8.1 pp
2026-07-26T09:31:34.328Z	85.5%	92.1%	+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T09:33:06.353Z	84.5%	92.5%	+8.0 pp
2026-07-26T09:35:41.273Z	84.5%	92.8%	+8.3 pp
2026-07-26T09:36:42.764Z	84.0%	92.8%	+8.8 pp
2026-07-26T09:38:37.423Z	84.0%	93.3%	+9.3 pp
2026-07-26T09:39:45.553Z	84.5%	93.7%	+9.2 pp
2026-07-26T09:40:46.195Z	84.5%	94.0%	+9.5 pp
2026-07-26T09:40:58.422Z	88.0%	94.0%	+6.0 pp
2026-07-26T09:44:48.457Z	88.0%	94.3%	+6.3 pp
2026-07-26T09:46:11.569Z	88.5%	94.3%	+5.8 pp
2026-07-26T09:49:34.839Z	88.0%	94.8%	+6.8 pp
2026-07-26T09:51:30.809Z	88.5%	94.8%	+6.3 pp
2026-07-26T09:56:44.884Z	88.5%	95.1%	+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T09:59:49.910Z	88.5%	95.1%	+6.6 pp
2026-07-26T10:01:51.380Z	88.5%	94.4%	+5.9 pp
2026-07-26T10:02:03.880Z	88.5%	94.4%	+5.9 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 92.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 84.5%.
The executable UP entry was 86.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 86.0%, gross edge 6.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 92.8%.