VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +32.91 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 08, 04:02 AMAug 08, 04:17 AMAug 08, 04:32 AMAug 08, 04:47 AMAug 08, 05:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T04:02:44.564Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:04:40.366Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:06:41.910Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:16:44.622Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:24:45.047Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:30:49.815Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:33:44.346Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:35:43.142Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:37:44.531Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:39:46.486Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:43:24.363Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:45:57.305Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:49:45.112Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:53:48.303Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:58:33.148Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:59:13.944Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:02:19.936Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 62.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 65.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 32.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 65.0%, gross edge 35.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.