VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +32.91 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 08, 04:00 AMAug 08, 04:16 AMAug 08, 04:32 AMAug 08, 04:48 AMAug 08, 05:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T04:47:28.740Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:47:41.438Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:49:23.316Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:49:44.876Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:49:45.112Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:51:10.708Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:51:28.380Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:51:43.413Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:52:16.315Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:53:26.420Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:53:48.303Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:55:31.871Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:55:50.417Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:55:51.289Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:57:03.124Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:57:13.542Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:57:23.447Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:58:10.762Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:58:33.148Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:59:13.944Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:00:11.170Z | 22.5% | 9.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:00:14.404Z | 9.0% | 9.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:00:24.480Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:00:44.722Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:00:45.569Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:01:13.920Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:02:17.354Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:02:19.936Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:03:15.056Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:04:14.441Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 62.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 65.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 32.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 65.0%, gross edge 35.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.