VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +37.95 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 9PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 08, 01:01 AMAug 08, 01:16 AMAug 08, 01:32 AMAug 08, 01:48 AMAug 08, 02:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T01:46:50.124Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:48:27.219Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:48:40.570Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:49:31.442Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:12.865Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:26.901Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:43.599Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:51:15.465Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:52:10.683Z | 41.5% | 43.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:52:29.333Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:52:40.470Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:52:41.218Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:53:13.054Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:54:21.458Z | 8.5% | 41.5% | +33.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:54:23.333Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:54:49.392Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:56:29.522Z | 27.0% | 27.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:57:59.882Z | 27.0% | 100.0% | +73.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:58:10.650Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:11.863Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:31.157Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:00:10.804Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:00:20.321Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:00:42.118Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:01:10.729Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:02:11.342Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:02:25.380Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:03:10.736Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:04:10.685Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:04:22.469Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 92.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 47.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 97.1%.