VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +37.95 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 9PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 08, 01:03 AMAug 08, 01:18 AMAug 08, 01:34 AMAug 08, 01:49 AMAug 08, 02:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T01:03:39.653Z | 47.5% | 99.7% | +52.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:05:45.013Z | 42.5% | 99.7% | +57.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:09:48.112Z | 42.5% | 99.8% | +57.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:16:43.579Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:18:38.417Z | 49.5% | 99.9% | +50.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:20:44.382Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:22:39.560Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:27:59.468Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:31:49.274Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:33:49.229Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:35:41.921Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:37:38.405Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:39:44.908Z | 56.0% | 100.0% | +44.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:46:50.124Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:43.599Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:52:41.218Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:11.863Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:31.157Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:04:22.469Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 92.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 47.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 97.1%.