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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +38.67 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY92.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+38.67 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 12.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 09:08 PMAug 07, 09:21 PMAug 07, 09:34 PMAug 07, 09:46 PMAug 07, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T21:08:43.177Z48.5%99.9%+51.4 pp
2026-08-07T21:10:47.957Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:15:37.964Z67.5%100.0%+32.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:21:44.824Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:23:43.363Z44.5%100.0%+55.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:25:48.405Z44.5%100.0%+55.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:29:37.883Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:37:41.878Z79.5%100.0%+20.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:39:47.480Z78.5%100.0%+21.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:45:46.173Z90.5%100.0%+9.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:48:37.242Z72.0%100.0%+28.0 pp
2026-08-07T21:54:48.385Z25.5%100.0%+74.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:58:21.760Z12.5%12.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T21:59:10.724Z12.5%100.0%+87.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:59:37.356Z12.5%100.0%+87.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 92.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.7%. Marx fair UP is 92.0%.