VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +38.67 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 07, 09:00 PMAug 07, 09:16 PMAug 07, 09:32 PMAug 07, 09:48 PMAug 07, 10:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T21:48:37.242Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:49:10.840Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:10.767Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:17.582Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:26.726Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:36.195Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:47.586Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:51:10.860Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:52:11.305Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:52:21.964Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:52:43.760Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:52:44.361Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:53:11.319Z | 45.0% | 100.0% | +55.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:54:16.891Z | 25.5% | 45.0% | +19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:54:24.553Z | 45.0% | 45.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:54:33.764Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:54:47.796Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:54:48.385Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:55:10.679Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:57:19.808Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:58:10.796Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:58:21.760Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:59:10.724Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:59:37.356Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:00:10.907Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:01:10.539Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:01:19.042Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:02:11.247Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:03:10.543Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:04:11.289Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 92.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.7%. Marx fair UP is 92.0%.