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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.30 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY73.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+20.30 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-16.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 12.5%Marx Fair UP 12.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 02:01 PMAug 07, 02:16 PMAug 07, 02:30 PMAug 07, 02:45 PMAug 07, 02:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T14:01:34.327Z50.0%82.4%+32.4 pp
2026-08-07T14:03:37.269Z50.0%68.0%+18.0 pp
2026-08-07T14:05:41.579Z34.5%63.7%+29.2 pp
2026-08-07T14:16:42.763Z31.5%58.8%+27.3 pp
2026-08-07T14:18:50.293Z32.5%70.9%+38.4 pp
2026-08-07T14:20:48.537Z32.5%87.6%+55.1 pp
2026-08-07T14:22:43.031Z48.5%95.3%+46.8 pp
2026-08-07T14:24:44.306Z48.5%91.5%+43.0 pp
2026-08-07T14:26:47.526Z48.5%97.1%+48.6 pp
2026-08-07T14:30:47.253Z75.5%99.6%+24.1 pp
2026-08-07T14:35:42.687Z79.5%99.9%+20.4 pp
2026-08-07T14:37:42.577Z79.5%99.8%+20.3 pp
2026-08-07T14:39:40.603Z79.5%100.0%+20.5 pp
2026-08-07T14:44:46.673Z78.5%100.0%+21.5 pp
2026-08-07T14:46:40.430Z71.5%99.9%+28.4 pp
2026-08-07T14:48:41.347Z71.5%100.0%+28.5 pp
2026-08-07T14:50:48.154Z71.5%100.0%+28.5 pp
2026-08-07T14:52:48.707Z78.5%100.0%+21.5 pp
2026-08-07T14:54:46.237Z78.5%99.9%+21.4 pp
2026-08-07T14:59:20.093Z12.5%12.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T14:59:30.793Z12.5%12.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 73.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 24.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 21.9%. Marx fair UP is 75.1%.