VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.30 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 07, 02:00 PMAug 07, 02:15 PMAug 07, 02:31 PMAug 07, 02:47 PMAug 07, 03:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T14:46:40.430Z | 71.5% | 99.9% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:47:12.807Z | 71.5% | 99.9% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:48:13.405Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:48:26.117Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:48:41.347Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:49:15.734Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:50:10.801Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:50:23.352Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:50:48.154Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:51:13.553Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:52:10.565Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:52:31.336Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:52:48.707Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:53:13.442Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:54:29.390Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:54:30.983Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:54:46.237Z | 78.5% | 99.9% | +21.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:55:10.836Z | 78.5% | 99.9% | +21.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:56:11.359Z | 50.5% | 78.5% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:56:25.947Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:56:46.149Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:58:43.008Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:08.736Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:20.093Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:30.793Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:00:10.770Z | 0.5% | 50.5% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:00:22.038Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:01:52.891Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:02:10.741Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:03:10.553Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 73.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 24.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 21.9%. Marx fair UP is 75.1%.