VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.38 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 69.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 20.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.9%. Marx fair UP is 71.2%.