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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.38 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY69.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+16.38 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 04:02 PMAug 07, 04:16 PMAug 07, 04:31 PMAug 07, 04:45 PMAug 07, 04:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T16:02:46.185Z52.0%76.8%+24.8 pp
2026-08-07T16:08:40.980Z54.5%86.8%+32.3 pp
2026-08-07T16:10:50.470Z68.5%87.7%+19.2 pp
2026-08-07T16:13:03.511Z68.5%89.9%+21.4 pp
2026-08-07T16:19:46.924Z69.5%89.8%+20.3 pp
2026-08-07T16:21:42.016Z69.5%93.2%+23.7 pp
2026-08-07T16:23:45.418Z69.5%90.9%+21.4 pp
2026-08-07T16:26:30.550Z63.5%78.5%+15.0 pp
2026-08-07T16:32:47.020Z55.5%83.4%+27.9 pp
2026-08-07T16:34:46.065Z55.5%89.2%+33.7 pp
2026-08-07T16:44:47.300Z67.5%94.7%+27.2 pp
2026-08-07T16:46:45.476Z67.5%93.6%+26.1 pp
2026-08-07T16:50:43.346Z55.5%93.3%+37.8 pp
2026-08-07T16:52:43.916Z55.5%98.2%+42.7 pp
2026-08-07T16:59:15.010Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T16:59:30.569Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 69.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 20.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.9%. Marx fair UP is 71.2%.